Is anyone sick of winning yet? - Page 4 - Talk About Marriage
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post #46 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-15-2016, 08:51 PM
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Is anyone sick of winning yet?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
Diplomacy is a complex and delicate game. At its core, it is desgned to prevent major powers from going to war - which with nuclear powers could kill billions and end civilization. So it provides lots of ways that countries can signal their intentions long before there is any risk of war.



In some ways its like the federal reserve: The chairman of the fed doesn't come out and say "I think the economy is screwed for the next few years", that would cause wild market fluctuations. He gives small hints as to the gradually changing probabilities of interest rate changes - and the markets can respond in a gradual way.



The US, China and Taiwan are currently in a situation where no one is killing anyone. Where there is hundreds of billions of dollars of trade. This is to be contrasted with the situation in the 60s where a cross-straight war was a real possibility - a war which would at best have killed a huge number of people can cost the US a vast amount of money, and at worst...



There are issues. China is building bases in the south china sea. China is stealing technology. The US is delivering high-tech products with NSA spyware. Japan is trying to revive some old WW2 island disputes. Some factions in Taiwan are trying to create problems with China to snub other factions.



But despite those issues, we are able to buy low cost Iphones and TVs, cargo ships move through the area unmolested, China and Taiwan are both getting rich off of mutual trade. Boeing is selling vast numbers of airliners to the rapidly growing Chinese airlines. American companies are designing huge buildings in China. In general things are not that bad.



I see no reason to throw out the one-China policy when all we need is to continue our various diplomatic tweaks. They are working.

I apologize but I didn't quite follow your point. Are we in agreement the post pointing to phone call is absurd?


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post #47 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 10:34 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

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And we know she's a warmonger because...

Benghazi?
Vince Foster?
Secret emails with orders to General Dynamics?
Being duped by Colin & Friends like some Democrats and ALL Republicans?
Cites from the well-known VRWC sites, NYT and HuffPo:

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/28/us...ton-libya.html
Hillary Clinton Goes All-In On Syria No-Fly Zone | The Huffington Post

Always remember the LD motto: "Sex isn't important!!!"
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post #48 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 10:36 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

I'm not sure now who has said what. My feeling is that the phone call was important and ill-advised because it ran rough-shod over decades of careful diplomacy. In many cases simple direct action is a good idea, but not in diplomacy where the consequences of a mistake or over-reach are so disastrous.

It true that we would "win" a war with china, but consider the costs. Our war with a little two-bit country like Iraq cost trillions, imagine the cost of a war with a major power with a population of a billion.


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I apologize but I didn't quite follow your point. Are we in agreement the post pointing to phone call is absurd?
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post #49 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 10:41 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

@uhtred do you not think currency manipulation and essentially zero environmental rules/safety rules in Chinese factories has not had an impact on the US? True, we get cheap chit, but we exported jobs AND we owe them a pile of cash we don't have.
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post #50 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 10:59 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
I'm not sure now who has said what. My feeling is that the phone call was important and ill-advised because it ran rough-shod over decades of careful diplomacy. In many cases simple direct action is a good idea, but not in diplomacy where the consequences of a mistake or over-reach are so disastrous.

It true that we would "win" a war with china, but consider the costs. Our war with a little two-bit country like Iraq cost trillions, imagine the cost of a war with a major power with a population of a billion.
I think the media and people complaining about the phone call are way overreacting maybe even selectively outraged....or perhaps uninformed.

In December 2015, one year ago this month, the United States delivered $2 billion dollars of defensive materials to Taiwan. I think the shock and indignation over the congratulatory phone phone ought to be put in perspective and just dropped. It's a non-issue.

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post #51 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:04 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

It has an impact, just a very small one compared to the cost of a war.

I'm not really clear on how currency manipulation works. If the Yuan is kept abnormally low, why doesn't it make sense to invest in Chinese businesses? (serious question - I don't understand it).

The safety and environment issues are real - but much more widespread than China, and much worse in some other countries.

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@uhtred do you not think currency manipulation and essentially zero environmental rules/safety rules in Chinese factories has not had an impact on the US? True, we get cheap chit, but we exported jobs AND we owe them a pile of cash we don't have.
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post #52 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:07 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

Actually I just looked it up, the $2 billion in materials was one year ago today, 2015-12-16.

Btw - United States provided $6 billion in arms sales to Taiwan in September 2011.

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post #53 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:08 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

I think that is why the phone call was such a bad idea. We ARE sending arms to Taiwan. They DO have an independent government. Everyone has just found a way to save face by using an agree-upon set of words. If the words keep the peace, keep China happy and cost nothing, why change them?

There significant trade issues with China that can be addressed, but I don't see the Taiwan issue as a problem for anyone rigth now. Taiwan doesn't want to be invaded. We don't want Taiwan invaded. China doesn't want to invade Taiwan - can you imagine the re-build costs.



Quote:
Originally Posted by Haiku View Post
I think the media and people complaining about the phone call are way overreacting maybe even selectively outraged....or perhaps uninformed.

In December 2015, one year ago this month, the United States delivered $2 billion dollars of defensive materials to Taiwan. I think the shock and indignation over the congratulatory phone phone ought to be put in perspective and just dropped. It's a non-issue.
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post #54 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:17 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

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I think that is why the phone call was such a bad idea. We ARE sending arms to Taiwan. They DO have an independent government. Everyone has just found a way to save face by using an agree-upon set of words. If the words keep the peace, keep China happy and cost nothing, why change them?

There significant trade issues with China that can be addressed, but I don't see the Taiwan issue as a problem for anyone rigth now. Taiwan doesn't want to be invaded. We don't want Taiwan invaded. China doesn't want to invade Taiwan - can you imagine the re-build costs.
The silly overreaction (by media and comment here) to the phone call is my only focus. That phone call and providing billions in defensive materials aren't in the same universe.

Taiwan belongs to China. If they'd declare independence I believe China would invade in very short order with enormous support from the mainland Chinese. The United States would do nothing. I doubt Taiwan would last long. China would ravage them if necessary and then have to support the economic, political, and structural mess.

It's not what China wants but I think they'd be very committed in doing it. Maybe, just maybe they'd establish a small autonomous zone where they'd permit strictly controlled world aid.

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post #55 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:35 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

I agree with all but the first sentence.

If Taiwan declares independence, things could get ugly. The US recognizing Taiwan is one piece of that. The president talking to the Taiwanese president is a diplomatic indication that the US is leaning that direction. I don't think it was intended that way, but it will be seen that way.

Diplomacy is complicated and all actions need to be vetted with experts. The president can set policy, but he needs advice on how to send diplomatic signals.


Imagine you have just gone to your girlfriend's house and are talking with her father while she is upstairs. If you ask him where the nearest shop is where you can buy condoms, things will get....awkward.

Its not that he hasn't guessed that you are planning to have sex. You knew you were planning sex. She knew you were planning sex. If you are having sex, using condoms is clear better. Everyone was at some level OK with it, but still.....




Quote:
Originally Posted by Haiku View Post
The silly overreaction (by media and comment here) to the phone call is my only focus. That phone call and providing billions in defensive materials aren't in the same universe.

Taiwan belongs to China. If they'd declare independence I believe China would invade in very short order with enormous support from the mainland Chinese. The United States would do nothing. I doubt Taiwan would last long. China would ravage them if necessary and then have to support the economic, political, and structural mess.

It's not what China wants but I think they'd be very committed in doing it. Maybe, just maybe they'd establish a small autonomous zone where they'd permit strictly controlled world aid.


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post #56 of 56 (permalink) Old 12-16-2016, 11:48 AM
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Re: Is anyone sick of winning yet?

The billions in aid didn't just show up on the Taiwan shore. There were a result of US - Taiwan discussions. The congratulatory phone is being played up by our media, certain politicians, and to some degree unwittingly by people on forums. People should at least be made aware of the bigger picture so they can put this phone call issue in proper perspective.

Thanks for the conversation. We seem to agree with most points and those we differ on aren't significant.

Cheers!

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