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post #31 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 05:49 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
Why not? The election was close, no reason to think the next will be different. If things go well, the republicans will do better if they go badly the democrats will do better.

The electoral system makes victories look much larger than they are. It takes just a couple percent of the population to change their vote - or even turn out for the results to flip.
I am very pessimistic about everything. I actually think Trump is icing on the cake. The Democrats have gotten smote for 25 years. The trend line is clear Republican domination. Clinton and Obama were small neoliberal blips. The question in my mind is that the neoliberal Republicans are also collapsing, but what will replace them? Trump supporters think Trump's change will be good just because he's not an establishment guy (and he's a bully and bullies are cool, apparently), but his changes are not grounded in reason. He provides almost no grounding for his reasoning. It is chaotic. There is little to make me think his changes will be better than sticking with the neoliberals, which is really saying something. The Democrats have no unifying message anymore. They are old. I hope the neoliberal/New Democrats are gone after this. I hope progressive Republicans come back. We need different framings. I can't see through the fog. It'll be a miracle if we can even know what is really going on over the next 4 years.

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post #32 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 05:58 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by Kivlor View Post
Meh. We don't hold any other Administration to this standard. I don't see why we'd hold this one to it.

Both sides will scream they are right. Republicans will scream that their failures are due to Dems, and their successes due to their policies, just as the Dems scream the opposite. Just like Obama and the Dems scream that their failures are due to the evil Republicans and their successes due to the Dem policies, while the R's scream that his failures are his, and his successes are theirs.

I have no hope that anyone, myself included will look at this entirely objectively as it happens or in retrospect.
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post #33 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:01 PM Thread Starter
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Re: Fair test?

I think the experience with Trump will be very enlightening to many voters.

He may bring manufacturing and coal mining back to the US, but I expect it will mostly employ robots. American workers are expensive, and machines are getting cheaper. This problem transcends trade and tax issues and I haven't seen any way he is planing to address it.





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Originally Posted by troubledinma View Post
I am very pessimistic about everything. I actually think Trump is icing on the cake. The Democrats have gotten smote for 25 years. The trend line is clear Republican domination. Clinton and Obama were small neoliberal blips. The question in my mind is that the neoliberal Republicans are also collapsing, but what will replace them? Trump supporters think Trump's change will be good just because he's not an establishment guy (and he's a bully and bullies are cool, apparently), but his changes are not grounded in reason. He provides almost no grounding for his reasoning. It is chaotic. There is little to make me think his changes will be better than sticking with the neoliberals, which is really saying something. The Democrats have no unifying message anymore. They are old. I hope the neoliberal/New Democrats are gone after this. I hope progressive Republicans come back. We need different framings. I can't see through the fog. It'll be a miracle if we can even know what is really going on over the next 4 years.

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post #34 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:09 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by troubledinma View Post
The Democrats will not be back in any meaningful way for a very long time.
If Trump accomplishes anything that most people like, and if the Democrats keep screeching like autists about EVERYTHING he does, then you are right. The elections next year should result in massive gains for the Rs in the Senate even with a "normal" election cycle, because of all the D Senators from red states who are coming up for re-election...

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post #35 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:10 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Horse apples.

Obama inherited the worst possible economy in 2009. Trump, about the best possible economy.
So it was very easy for Obama to have good comparisons and it will be very hard for Trump to do so? Okay.

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post #36 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:15 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by naiveonedave View Post
tbh - Trump won, because he is seen as a non-establishment politician. If he can successfully implement change that 'gives power back to the people', he will get a 2nd term. I don't think either party has a different candidate who is not establishment.

I think you will continue to see the coasts electing Dems and the middle outside of Illinois, predominantly electing Reps and that will lead to 51/49 either way in the Senate for rest of time. Unless, of course, something major happens, like the death of one of the parties.
The way the Senate seats are coming up suggests that you are wrong about that. In fact, the Senate timing for Ds in 18 is much worse than it was for the Rs this time: Reeling Democrats confront brutal 2018 Senate map - POLITICO.

It looks as though the Rs can pick up quite a few seats next year, and possibly some more state legislatures too if the Ds keep doubling down on their losing strategy of demonizing Trump. Keep up the good work, boys!

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post #37 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:19 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?

So often political parties have the excuse that the "other" side prevented them from getting things done, but we don't have that issue now.

If it turns out well, its a sign of good policies in general, if it turns out badly its a sign of bad policies in general.


If I'm still posting, I'll remind people - assuming we still have electricity, and I'm not vacationing on Mars.
Yes and no - Four years if they keep the house and senate after the next mid term. Otherwise, you have at least 2 years to look at. Just keep in mind that they don't have a filibuster proof majority so it's not like they can do anything they want. And it can take some time to get a good read on the results of new policies.

But it's always driven me crazy to hear democrats complain about "Republican obstructionism" when they had the presidency, house and senate the first two years and Obama simply did not pursue his campaign promises during that time. Once they lost the house, they still had the Senate (Harry Reid) and they would refuse to even bring any Republican bills to the floor for discussion while simultaneously claiming the Republicans had no plans or ideas and said no to everything.

Also, Obama refused to talk with Republicans or consider ANY idea they put forth. Trump has already met with Democrats and traditionally Democrat special interest groups. I think it's going to be a fascinating 4 years.

But don't worry - while I do think Trump may be much more pro-space exploration than Obama, I think Mars is still a bit more than 4 years away...
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post #38 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:29 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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I actually agree with the posters saying that 4 years isn't enough. But then how do we evaluate whether policies like reducing corporate taxes to grow the economy work?
I agree re 4 years not being that long, but I think some policies will bring about a faster reaction than others. For example, your reduction in corporate taxes. That may not immediately put money in the corporation's coffers, but businesses will crunch the numbers of what they expect to pay out in taxes and start making some moves right away based on their expectations. Could be immediate jobs and investments and expansions and the choice to stay in the US vs. move operations overseas.

Another thing that muddies the waters is how one change in the world impacts a seemingly unrelated policy. People keep talking about keeping jobs "here" (in the US) and that's important. But what good will that do when those jobs belong to robots? The world is changing VERY fast due to technology and no one who ran for president, including Trump who won, addressed that.

A policy that may be great today may be irrelevant in a few years.
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post #39 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 07:31 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by tech-novelist View Post
So it was very easy for Obama to have good comparisons and it will be very hard for Trump to do so? Okay.
It simply says the economic reality of 2009 ain't the same as that of 2017.
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post #40 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 08:27 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by EllisRedding View Post
I believe as well (and don't know how many are coming up for re election), but over the next 4 years the house/senate could swing towards a democratic majority since those elections don't just solely occur at the same time the president is elected.
The Senate races are stacked against the Democrats in 2018 (lots of Dems up for reelection in 2018 are in red states and got in when Obama won in 2012)

The House is pretty much a lock for Reps for the foreseeable future due to state control of redistricting and Dem districts being 90% Dem while Rep districts are 60% Rep.

2020 is the next decent chance for Democrats

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post #41 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 08:31 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
I think the experience with Trump will be very enlightening to many voters.

He may bring manufacturing and coal mining back to the US, but I expect it will mostly employ robots. American workers are expensive, and machines are getting cheaper. This problem transcends trade and tax issues and I haven't seen any way he is planing to address it.
He has no way of addressing the jobs thing. No one does. In the battle of labor vs. capital, capital won and is gaining distance quickly. What are all the idle people going to do? How does this play out? Is Trump going to singlehandedly bring back 15/hr or higher jobs? If so, what will these jobs create/manufacture? Are Americans going to enjoy paying a higher price due to the increased labor costs? If he's bringing low wage jobs back, who is going to have money to pay for anything, let alone save for retirement since the safety net will be destroyed? Are we just going to bring back breadlines and beggars? Since when does Trump care about bringing back high wage jobs? It makes no sense given his history. It's such a hollow wish. Also protectionism is such a major off the script "pivot" for a Republican. I am amazed at how many conservatives became cool with this overnight. Trump is dangerous to Democrats because he keeps doing an end around about economic issues to blue collar workers while Democrats court donors in the Hamptons and keep saying nothing is wrong. The arrogance of Democrats is breathtaking and the reckless obsession with power and manipulations by Republicans (both McConnell and Ryan probably think they can control Trump) both do a grave disservice to the American people. No one has a monopoly on reality and no one's pet ideology has nearly enough of the answers to go it alone. We don't know what is coming. Socialism is a 20th century problem. Fascism is an even older problem. Neither apply.
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post #42 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 11:21 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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He has no way of addressing the jobs thing. No one does. In the battle of labor vs. capital, capital won and is gaining distance quickly. What are all the idle people going to do? How does this play out? Is Trump going to singlehandedly bring back 15/hr or higher jobs? If so, what will these jobs create/manufacture? Are Americans going to enjoy paying a higher price due to the increased labor costs? If he's bringing low wage jobs back, who is going to have money to pay for anything, let alone save for retirement since the safety net will be destroyed? Are we just going to bring back breadlines and beggars? Since when does Trump care about bringing back high wage jobs? It makes no sense given his history. It's such a hollow wish. Also protectionism is such a major off the script "pivot" for a Republican. I am amazed at how many conservatives became cool with this overnight. Trump is dangerous to Democrats because he keeps doing an end around about economic issues to blue collar workers while Democrats court donors in the Hamptons and keep saying nothing is wrong. The arrogance of Democrats is breathtaking and the reckless obsession with power and manipulations by Republicans (both McConnell and Ryan probably think they can control Trump) both do a grave disservice to the American people. No one has a monopoly on reality and no one's pet ideology has nearly enough of the answers to go it alone. We don't know what is coming. Socialism is a 20th century problem. Fascism is an even older problem. Neither apply.
We are definitely in uncharted waters. Once jobs are lost to animation, what will happen? A permanent welfare class? A base salary for being an American? The companies using the automation will have lower costs but who will buy their products/services if only a small percentage of people are working? If people aren't working, who will pay taxes? If companies can't make money 'cause no one has money to buy their stuff, what will motivate companies to exist and produce things? People might say well the government will provide for basic needs and services, but who will there be to pay taxes to the government to pay for these things?

Everything is changing very fast and I don't think anyone knows what to do about it or what the repercussions will be.
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post #43 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-26-2017, 07:41 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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We are definitely in uncharted waters. Once jobs are lost to animation, what will happen?
Is Hollywood really that important as a job creator? I mean, I realize there are a lot of cartoons these days but it's hard to imagine that it would be that disastrous.

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post #44 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-26-2017, 10:53 PM
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Re: Fair test?

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Is Hollywood really that important as a job creator? I mean, I realize there are a lot of cartoons these days but it's hard to imagine that it would be that disastrous.
Automation! LOL. If I had a robot to type this up for me that wouldn't have happened.

ETA - now I keep laughing. BUT IN MY DEFENSE - jobs ARE being lost to animation! Think of all the 20+ year old guys sitting around watching cartoons and playing video games in their parent's basements now instead of working. OK, maybe it's workers, not jobs, that are being lost to animation. Either way - be afraid. Be very afraid. Animation is coming!
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post #45 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-27-2017, 06:11 AM
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Re: Fair test?

Lots of animation jobs have been lost... Watch hand drawn Disney animation from 30-40 years ago vs super HD 4K type tripe renderings of today...
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