Fair test? - Talk About Marriage
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post #1 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-23-2017, 05:51 PM Thread Starter
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Fair test?

The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?

So often political parties have the excuse that the "other" side prevented them from getting things done, but we don't have that issue now.

If it turns out well, its a sign of good policies in general, if it turns out badly its a sign of bad policies in general.


If I'm still posting, I'll remind people - assuming we still have electricity, and I'm not vacationing on Mars.

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post #2 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-23-2017, 06:24 PM
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Re: Fair test?

Quote:
Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?

So often political parties have the excuse that the "other" side prevented them from getting things done, but we don't have that issue now.

If it turns out well, its a sign of good policies in general, if it turns out badly its a sign of bad policies in general.


If I'm still posting, I'll remind people - assuming we still have electricity, and I'm not vacationing on Mars.
Impossible Prediction.

The world will not be the same 4 years from now. Regardless of what party controls what branch....this will not be the same place. Because of the ever changing nature of the world we live in any comparisons will be useless.

This doesn't even address the fact that History is written by the winners. Ask most Democrats...they will say Obama did a great job....Republicans will say the opposite.

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Raked by machine gun fire.
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post #3 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-23-2017, 07:01 PM
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Re: Fair test?

Quote:
Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?

So often political parties have the excuse that the "other" side prevented them from getting things done, but we don't have that issue now.

If it turns out well, its a sign of good policies in general, if it turns out badly its a sign of bad policies in general.


If I'm still posting, I'll remind people - assuming we still have electricity, and I'm not vacationing on Mars.
The problem is that a) the "standard narratives" are breaking down, b) the Democrats are screwed for a long time (mostly of their own accord, partly from gerrymandering) and they have only just begun paying for their arrogance and, c) the Republicans (and conservatives) are also now exceedingly arrogant and will interpret their "success" (really just Democratic ineptitude) as vindication as they seek to pad their advantage and we slide toward a one party state. Until liberals take their party back from their Hampton-partying elitist Democrats and conservatives become less tribalistic and realize their lurch toward cornpone authoritarianism is actually a problem, we're in trouble. I keep hoping third parties get in there to break the insipid stories/myths we keep hearing and force Democrats and Republicans to get focused on policy instead of ideological purity (pure conservatism on the right, pure centrist on the left).
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post #4 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 09:47 AM
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Re: Fair test?

Word of the day is now "cornpone"

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post #5 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:01 AM
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Re: Fair test?

This is a really good point. It takes forever to get new policies through congress even if you have the senate, the house and the President from the same party. Even after that you need time for the new policies to take affect and see the impact they make. Alot of the time, we don't see the affect until the next presidency. Given this, 4 years is probably not a fair test.

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post #6 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:02 AM
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Re: Fair test?

Quote:
Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?

So often political parties have the excuse that the "other" side prevented them from getting things done, but we don't have that issue now.

If it turns out well, its a sign of good policies in general, if it turns out badly its a sign of bad policies in general.


If I'm still posting, I'll remind people - assuming we still have electricity, and I'm not vacationing on Mars.
Meh. We don't hold any other Administration to this standard. I don't see why we'd hold this one to it.

Both sides will scream they are right. Republicans will scream that their failures are due to Dems, and their successes due to their policies, just as the Dems scream the opposite. Just like Obama and the Dems scream that their failures are due to the evil Republicans and their successes due to the Dem policies, while the R's scream that his failures are his, and his successes are theirs.

I have no hope that anyone, myself included will look at this entirely objectively as it happens or in retrospect.

Do you hear the people sing / Lost in the valley of the night?
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For the wretched of the earth / There is a flame that never dies.
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post #7 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:05 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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Originally Posted by uhtred View Post
The republicans control both houses, and the presidency.

Do people agree that looking at the overall situation in the US 4 years from now is a fair test of their policies?
Not completely.

1) Government as well as biased advocacy groups create false or badly misleading statistics. Inflation and unemployment rates are an excellent example. Projected spending, tax revenues, etc.

2) Many effects take years to show up. Budgetary decisions from 10 years ago can still be having strong influences on current finances. Changes to tax rates or spending can have a 2 to 4 year lag before the overall economy changes direction. Given the magnitude of our financial problems the lag could be longer.

3) Indeed the initial economic responses to the proper changes in policy could be negative. Increasing interest rates seems to be the right move, but it will cause the stock market to decrease. Changes to mortgage rules could lead to a decrease in home values, compounded on top of how interest rate increases would reduce home values. There are many examples of policy changes which would cause initial pain but are long term the right thing.

In 4 years we should be looking to see if we are on a much better path than we were prior to Trump's election. It would be too simplistic to measure it by the Dow Jones Industrial Average or median home value. It would be too naive to blindly trust economic metrics.
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post #8 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:17 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Fair test?

I actually agree with the posters saying that 4 years isn't enough. But then how do we evaluate whether policies like reducing corporate taxes to grow the economy work?
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post #9 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:24 AM
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Re: Fair test?

I believe as well (and don't know how many are coming up for re election), but over the next 4 years the house/senate could swing towards a democratic majority since those elections don't just solely occur at the same time the president is elected.
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post #10 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:25 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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I believe as well (and don't know how many are coming up for re election), but over the next 4 years the house/senate could swing towards a democratic majority since those elections don't just solely occur at the same time the president is elected.
The Democrats will not be back in any meaningful way for a very long time.

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post #11 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:28 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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Meh. We don't hold any other Administration to this standard. I don't see why we'd hold this one to it.

Both sides will scream they are right. Republicans will scream that their failures are due to Dems, and their successes due to their policies, just as the Dems scream the opposite. Just like Obama and the Dems scream that their failures are due to the evil Republicans and their successes due to the Dem policies, while the R's scream that his failures are his, and his successes are theirs.

I have no hope that anyone, myself included will look at this entirely objectively as it happens or in retrospect.
Horse apples.

Obama inherited the worst possible economy in 2009. Trump, about the best possible economy.
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post #12 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:29 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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The Democrats will not be back in any meaningful way for a very long time.
Uniparty!!! Rejoice.
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post #13 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:31 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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Horse apples.

Obama inherited the worst possible economy in 2009. Trump, about the best possible economy.
Really! Try to get a job once.

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post #14 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:41 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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Uniparty!!! Rejoice.
One party states are generally not very good models to emulate. I also don't think that party's ideology really maps well onto the challenges we are facing. It's going to take an external influence to change things. I just hope there is no terrorist attack under the rule of Mike Pence's boss. It will be perpetual martial law.
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post #15 of 47 (permalink) Old 01-24-2017, 10:42 AM
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Re: Fair test?

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Horse apples.

Obama inherited the worst possible economy in 2009. Trump, about the best possible economy.
You and I have very different opinions about the state of the current economy. Even with interest rates at near zero, we are seeing almost no growth. That is pitiful.

Obama did start with a bad position. Sadly, improvement has been very limited.

We could do this ad infinitum, pointing out that Clinton's housing/lending policies helped create the massive bubble and subsequent crash under Bush2. And then we could look at Bush1 and point out how he negatively impacted Clinton, and then Reagan, and then Carter, and so on.

Thanks for proving me right John. Right away with the "Obama's failures are the Republicans' fault! And his successes are completely his own!" Exactly what I was saying would happen.

OP, I hope you're reading this. The dialogue here is exactly what I was getting at. The Liberals will support their TEAM at all costs, and the Conservatives will do the same with theirs.

Do you hear the people sing / Lost in the valley of the night?
It is the music of a people / Who are climbing to the light.
For the wretched of the earth / There is a flame that never dies.
Even the darkest night will end / And the sun will rise...
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