02-11-2013, 03:34 PM
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#10 (permalink)
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Join Date: Feb 2011 Location: Redneckistan
Posts: 7,049
|  Re: There He Goes Again!
Obama's second term effectively ends in October 2014 right before the midterm elections. After that it's all Presidential libraries, Medals of Freedom and carefully controlled events in the name of posterity. So anything you think he's going to do he's got about 22 months with which to do it. After that it's a long terminal glide path to the end. And while it may be that the Democrats will somehow take control of the lower house of Congress in 2014 it's unlikely which means that the elections will be largely irrelevant from a legislative perspective. I suppose there might be one more SC Justice he might name but history tells us that the leftist radicals and rightist radicals once appointed are all mostly moderates. So not much to look forward there. The economy will more or less limp and blunder along at this level of unemployment with slightly worse macro economics, slightly higher inflation or stagflation. The Chinese economy is poised to stall which is both good and bad for us. Meanwhile the EU seems intent on slow motion imploding.
I genuinely believe we are living in a post-leadership era. A period of weak bland leaders who are more caretakers than risk takers. First World countries and economies will dribble onward with little growth or sudden collapse. Brazil and Argentina are showing some strain. Mexico is by some measures practically a failed state - in the north of the country. Venezuela is probably going over a cliff with the death of il Duce Maximum Leader Chavez and there's nothing like screaming Yaqui Invasion! to start shooting at whomever to distract the dirty mobs. The Arab Spring is going to conclude with Biblical finality in Egypt where you will see famines and social calamity not seen since China's Great Leap Forward, taking down most of the Maghreb in collateral damage. Syria will peter out like Bosnia replete with smaller scale genocides. Pakistan will break apart and the civil unrest and war will be spectacular.
Other than that things will be fine.
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