# They myth about the "50% of all marriages end in divorce" statistic



## revitalizedhusband (Feb 9, 2009)

I read a story in a magazine recently (can't find an online version) that found that the way they calculate divorce rates and come up with the "50%" is pretty screwy.

The article said that only 1 in 3 "first" marriages end in divorce, so about 33%.

That means that two thirds or 67% of all people who get married never get a divorce at all.

Its the 1/3 that do that sometimes have 2 or 3 or more divorces over time that make the overall numbers get near the "50%" figure.

I found one article that said the highest the real divorce rate (% of people who have been through a divorce who have been married) is about 41% but typically is 33-40%.

So, 2/3rds of us who get married never go through a divorce. Its those that do get divorced and end up getting multiple divorces that "inflate" the numbers



Again, here's an article about the subject, its not the one I read in the magazine, its one that is similar though.

http://www.nytimes.com/2005/04/19/health/19divo.html


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## sunflower (Dec 15, 2008)

Interesting you should see what the percentage is on cheating cause I bet that tops it.


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## reidqa (Mar 25, 2009)

Both wrong,

Its time versus marriage, its now about 72% over a ten year span.

So 100 couples married today, about 72% will be divorced in 2019.


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## Blanca (Jul 25, 2008)

Ya, I had heard the same thing some time ago.


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## revitalizedhusband (Feb 9, 2009)

reidqa said:


> Both wrong,
> 
> Its time versus marriage, its now about 72% over a ten year span.
> 
> So 100 couples married today, about 72% will be divorced in 2019.


Link?

Statistics show that only about 33-35% of people who get married ever get even 1 divorce, that about 65% of people who ever get married NEVER get divorced.

Now, its that 33-35% that typically have multiple divorces that push the numbers up to 50+%. 

I have a hard time believing that if 65% of people who get married never go through a divorce that 72% of marriages don't last 10 years...

Oh wait, I guess I actually just ran the numbers and I can "see it".

If the 33% that do have divorces just "average" 2.2 divorces (most have 2, some have 3, very few only have the one) then its possible the numbers you mention are correct.

I still think the fact that 2/3 of the people who ever get married never get divorced, they actually go through with the "til death do us part" is a lot more encouraging than the "well, 50/50 chance you'll get divorced" which is not true at all.


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## reidqa (Mar 25, 2009)

Husband.

All you need to do is run a search in a major metro area on marriage license with names from 1990-1991, now run the same names for divorce in 2000-2001.

You will be shocked.


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## sunflower (Dec 15, 2008)

Why are you guys talking about this you wanna be depressed?


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## revitalizedhusband (Feb 9, 2009)

reidqa said:


> Husband.
> 
> All you need to do is run a search in a major metro area on marriage license with names from 1990-1991, now run the same names for divorce in 2000-2001.
> 
> You will be shocked.


I probably wouldn't be shocked, and I probably would find out that the vast majority of the divorces were not the peoples' first divorces.

Like I said, 66% of all people who get married never have a divorce, its the 33% that do have at least one divorce, that end up with multiple to get the "divorce rate" to 50-70% for all marriages.


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## reidqa (Mar 25, 2009)

Husband,

Sad sad statistics, and think there is kids involved.

And to think its all about sex 90% of the time.

I do beleive god took care of that for us.


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## BIGJ (Mar 12, 2009)

revitalizedhusband said:


> I read a story in a magazine recently (can't find an online version) that found that the way they calculate divorce rates and come up with the "50%" is pretty screwy.
> 
> The article said that only 1 in 3 "first" marriages end in divorce, so about 33%.
> 
> ...



I doubt it's a "myth" as you claim...they sure got those stats from somewhere. Most of it is true. I know tons of supposedly "happy couples" who arent "happy" at all, they're miserable.


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## reidqa (Mar 25, 2009)

Big,

Sad fact.

Unhappy many couples after damaging event stay to just to feel good, they should be broken up.


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## BIGJ (Mar 12, 2009)

reidqa said:


> Big,
> 
> Sad fact.
> 
> Unhappy many couples after damaging event stay to just to feel good, they should be broken up.


You're not kidding. IMHO, this is one of the biggest reasons why so many marriages fail(besides the obvious reasons). I know it's hard for some who are married to move on and all, but it's really quite simple: if you're unhappy in any way w/your marriage than:

A) why did you get married to that person in the 1st place? Why didn't you think things through? you are afterall, going to spend the rest of your life with this person.


B) if you're unhappy....LEAVE!!!! Get your stuff, and get out. It's easier than some think. I want no toxicity in my relationships. I dont understand why so many feel they have to stay, or want to? This person isn;t right for you, you made a bad decision, it happens. Chalk it up to being a "life lesson" and move on. You're not a bad person since you've gotten a divorce, you know? you dont have cooties, you're not strange, it happens. Just think things through completely next time.


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## MarriedToTheOne (Apr 22, 2015)

revitalizedhusband said:


> I read a story in a magazine recently (can't find an online version) that found that the way they calculate divorce rates and come up with the "50%" is pretty screwy.
> 
> The article said that only 1 in 3 "first" marriages end in divorce, so about 33%.
> 
> ...



You are absolutely correct.

National statistics (from state records and survey polls)) showed that for first time marriages their was a peak in the years following WW2 and then a steady drop the leaked off (low) in 1960. Then in the 1970s the levels began rising until they peaked in the mid 1980s, but even then (like after WW2) NEVER came close to being 50%..

The levels plateaued there until 1990s, when levels began slowly dropping (albeit slowly) again. I'm the early 2000s the rate of decrease actually began picking up and by 2012 (last year's data that researchers are comfortable with), the rate is actually nearing that of the late 1960s.


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## EleGirl (Dec 3, 2011)

Zombie thread.....


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