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post #226 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:06 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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I could just as easily go through the backgrounds and motivations of the opposing side and I guarantee there will be many unscientific motivations discovered.

The IPCC doesn't even have a reliable model for their theories.
What's stopping you?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming

You can say what you want about IPCC, but they have a model, and it is fairly reliable and predicting past changes. No one can say what the temperature will be in 100 years, but to just say "they don't have a reliable model" is disingenuous at best.

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post #227 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:12 AM
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Re: Climate Change

I think the public has a difficult time really understanding that there are levels of "bad". World War 2 really put a very minor dent in global population, but by many standards it was "bad". Same for the Black Death.

I agree that humans will survive, they adapt well to may environments. (as do sea gulls, squirrels, rats etc). It still might be a pretty unpleasant thousand years or so.

Antarctica is nice as a test bed, so I don't think its worth setting up a colony. We do have several permanently inhabited bases there and South Pole feels a lot like a moon base.




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If you believe the article...

Humans are the only species capable of changing almost any environment to suite its needs. Nowadays, we are even changing other species to suit our needs.

I'm pretty sure humanity will live on regardless of what happens. We are the only species on the planet that doesn't die out because of a change in its environment. If we wanted to, we could set up self sustaining colony on Antarctica. It would probably be a good idea to do so before we try sending colonists to mars... if for no other reason than to test and develop technologies designed to create a self sufficient colony in an isolated and harsh environment.

I think it's far more likely that we will kill most other species, even if we kill most of ourselves off in the process.

We are the only species in existence, that we know of, that has surpassed the need to physically evolve.
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post #228 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:24 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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What's stopping you?

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming

You can say what you want about IPCC, but they have a model, and it is fairly reliable and predicting past changes. No one can say what the temperature will be in 100 years, but to just say "they don't have a reliable model" is disingenuous at best.
Not disingenuous at all and I'm not impressed at all with the reliability of their model.
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post #229 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:25 AM
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Re: Climate Change

Data is a bit thin on the ground on this but
http://climate.envsci.rutgers.edu/pd...sions_0207.pdf shows roughly equal SO2 and CO2 emissions from volcanoes. (table 1) and 32Tg emissions from Krakatoa (table 3)

Note a Tg is terra-=gram or a trillion grams

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Carbon...27s_atmosphere
gives about 33 gigatons CO2 emission from fossil fuels / year. A giga-ton is 1000 terra grams. which is 33,000 Tg (1000X krakatoa)

So if those are correct Krakatoa was less than 1 day of human CO2 emissions.

The CO2/SO2 ratio varies, but it seem very unlikely krakatoa was anywhere near human levels of CO2 output. Krakatoa changed the climate because of dust high in the atmosphere.


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Well if you really want to see “climate change” wait until we have another eruption like Krakatoa in the 1860’s. That resulted in a year without a summer.

Climate change is politically driven by libs. Junk science totally.
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post #230 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:28 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Not disingenuous at all and I'm not impressed at all with the reliability of their model.
How close does a model have to be to impress you? They said 1 degree C and it was 0.9 in some versions. SO, if they are wrong by the same margin over time, we are still screwed in 2100. Just a little less so.

Can you provide some models that forecast that everything is great and will continue to be so, that also match up well to historical records and haven't been shredded by other scientists?
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post #231 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:46 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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How close does a model have to be to impress you? They said 1 degree C and it was 0.9 in some versions. SO, if they are wrong by the same margin over time, we are still screwed in 2100. Just a little less so.

Can you provide some models that forecast that everything is great and will continue to be so, that also match up well to historical records and haven't been shredded by other scientists?
Please reference the prediction model you are referring to.

When you have a group of people saying everyone has to give them trillions of dollars or doomsday is coming, they have to be a hell of a lot more scientific and accurate than they have been.

Yes, you actually need proof that a prediction of doom is accurate before people should give you that much money and risk a significant portion of the Earth's population being lost during the "salvation" process.

They also need to not only accurately show impending doom but that their solution will actually work.
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post #232 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:48 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Originally Posted by Tasorundo View Post
How close does a model have to be to impress you? They said 1 degree C and it was 0.9 in some versions. SO, if they are wrong by the same margin over time, we are still screwed in 2100. Just a little less so.

Can you provide some models that forecast that everything is great and will continue to be so, that also match up well to historical records and haven't been shredded by other scientists?
P.S. ignoring dissenting scientists while making a mentally challenged child of extreme privilege a figurehead was not a convincing move.
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post #233 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:51 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Originally Posted by ConanHub View Post
Please reference the prediction model you are referring to.

When you have a group of people saying everyone has to give them trillions of dollars or doomsday is coming, they have to be a hell of a lot more scientific and accurate than they have been.

Yes, you actually need proof that a prediction of doom is accurate before people should give you that much money and risk a significant portion of the Earth's population being lost during the "salvation" process.

They also need to not only accurately show impending doom but that their solution will actually work.
Here is a summary of many climate models and a table comparing accuracy:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming

There are also many scientists that believe the IPCC underestimates the future problem.
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post #234 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 10:55 AM Thread Starter
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Re: Climate Change

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/goddard...er-than-losses

"A new NASA study says that an increase in Antarctic snow accumulation that began 10,000 years ago is currently adding enough ice to the continent to outweigh the increased losses from its thinning glaciers.

The research challenges the conclusions of other studies, including the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) 2013 report, which says that Antarctica is overall losing land ice.

According to the new analysis of satellite data, the Antarctic ice sheet showed a net gain of 112 billion tons of ice a year from 1992 to 2001. That net gain slowed to 82 billion tons of ice per year between 2003 and 2008."

"I'm significant!! Screamed the dust speck." - Bill Watterson
"Youth is wasted on the young". - George Bernard Shaw

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post #235 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 11:02 AM
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Re: Climate Change

Why is Antarctica's Ice Sheet Growing in a Warming World? - Science in the News

Don't worry that the snow increase is because the ocean is warmer, its all good.

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post #236 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 11:04 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Originally Posted by ConanHub View Post
P.S. ignoring dissenting scientists while making a mentally challenged child of extreme privilege a figurehead was not a convincing move.
P.P.S - I did not get a vote in who speaks out for things they believe in.
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post #237 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 11:52 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Here is a summary of many climate models and a table comparing accuracy:

https://www.carbonbrief.org/analysis...global-warming

There are also many scientists that believe the IPCC underestimates the future problem.
Thanks for the reference. I hope you understand that I have zero need to be right about anything. I look at data and can ask questions and draw some conclusions.

There is serious bias all over this issue and I don't mind looking at opposing views without the alarmists and doom sayers.
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post #238 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 11:54 AM
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Re: Climate Change

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Why is Antarctica's Ice Sheet Growing in a Warming World? - Science in the News

Don't worry that the snow increase is because the ocean is warmer, its all good.
It is actually ice later increase which flies directly in the face of what many alarmists were claiming.
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post #239 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 12:24 PM
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Re: Climate Change

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Originally Posted by ConanHub View Post
Thanks for the reference. I hope you understand that I have zero need to be right about anything. I look at data and can ask questions and draw some conclusions.

There is serious bias all over this issue and I don't mind looking at opposing views without the alarmists and doom sayers.
Me neither, in fact I would love to be wrong about it. I tend to view the people that downplay it more skeptically as there is always this 'money' claim laid at the feet of climate science. Yet, they don't have any money and they aren't getting rich. Meanwhile, the deniers are, but somehow they don't have a vested interest in it. Just seems odd to me.

As for the comment about snow becoming ice later, possibly, but it takes a long time for snow pack to become ice and the article points out a big issue with measurements being based on misreading snowpack vs ice growth.

Also, warming oceans will erode from the non-visible parts of ice, which we are not really looking at either.
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post #240 of 575 (permalink) Old 11-14-2019, 12:27 PM
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Re: Climate Change

The problem is that no one but the subject matter experts can read the original papers. The simplified / filtered versions are easy to misinterpret / characterize by people who have an agenda in either direction.

Then there are a lot of people with no scientific information at all, on BOTH sides making loud statements that are simply untrue. Whether its claims that volcanoes emit more CO2 than do people, or clams that Antarctica will melt or all of humanity will be extinct by 2100.

Dunning Kurger is strong here.


When a society no longer agrees on who are experts, it is doomed. I honestly don't see a way out of this mess. Modern science and technology are simply too complicated to understand without a huge amount of subject-matter specific knowledge. I don't have the expertise to evaluate climate science and a climate scientist does not have the expertise to evaluate my field. We would both know that, but a politician might think that they can evaluate both
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